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I'm Not Buying It.

I'm not buying it.

Today the 2 year-Treasury Bond Yield moved higher than the 10-year bond yield, a historically bearish sign for the market.

Historically, when the yield curves invert, this has been an indicator of an upcoming Recession.

Many market-speculators are pointing to the Fed's actions to raise rates, harming consumer buying power and slowing down economic growth. If you look at any number of different financial news media outlets, they will have fear-inducing headlines of the "imminent upcoming recession."

Again, I'm not buying it.

I am living and breathing in this job market currently as Recruitment Consultant and I can assure you there are no signs of it slowing down. The number of Americans filing jobless claims last week dropped to a 52.5 year low.

Consumer balance sheets are still incredibly strong as well. There is still so much pent up spending demand incoming over the next 12-18 months in consumer goods, tourism & travel.

According to Bloomberg and Morgan Stanley, U.S. household debt-to GDP ration is down nearly 20% since its peak in 2008, and U.S. household net-worth has hit record highs, crossing $150 Trillion to start this year.

I love following the market and am fascinated with the different view points and speculative comments that the industry makes- and I understand the concern over events such as today's inverted yield curve.

But if you are an investing into the market with a long-term time horizon, then this is all nothing but white noise. There will continue to be volatility in the market as rate hikes are continued, and action continues to unfold in Russia and Ukraine.

However these events will subside, and the next catalysts will begin to make their way into the market's eyes and the media's attention. I am a strong believer in the US economy, and there is no other place on earth I would rather invest my future into.

As always, it is important to look at every event and piece of news from a number of different angles, and I encourage you to do the same when considering this topic of an incoming Recession. If you are interested in seeing more of my takes on the job market, economy, stock market, and career development, go ahead and subscribe to my blog here to stay up to date and never miss a beat!

1 comment

1 commento

Patricia Lennon
Patricia Lennon
30 mar 2022

Your confidence is contagious!

Mi piace
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